Ecco l’Italia vista dall’estero. Citigroup sull’Italia e su Berlusconi.
I potenti mezzi di Rischio Calcolato sono venuti in possesso dell’ultimo report rilasciato da Citigroup sul mercato azionario Italiano:
Nel Report (108 pagine) troverete una review di tutti i principali titoli italiani. Ci ha colpito quanto scritto a pagina 9, un analisi lucida e spietata del panorama politico italiano,e un pizzico di humor sulla “possibile soluzione”:
After Berlusconi, Chaos?
Silvio Berlusconi is again making …the front pages of Italy’s newspapers, and again, it is for allegations about his private life rather than his political achievements. Although we are agnostic on Mr. Silvio Berlusconi’s political role, we believe that the perceived conflicts of interest associated with Mr. Berlusconi’s position are de facto delaying much-needed economic reforms in Italy. With the latest round of allegations sparking calls from political opponents and the press for a new general election, we see a risk that his position comes under threat. The current political situation in Italy is complex and difficult to predict.
We see a number of issues:
- We would expect Mr. Berlusconi’s opponents to focus more on scandal and personal allegations rather than on solutions to Italy’s structural problems, particularly in the event of a new election.
- Whereas such scandals might have a big international echo, they are much less relevant at national level. As a brilliant Italian journalist recently pointed out in the FT, in Italy “there are five million people buying newspapers, going to bookshops or browsing news website. And you get the feeling they are the same people”. The remaining 55 million might think/act in a different ways.
- The opposition does not seem to be a credible alternative to Silvio Berlusconi. The opposition is extremely fragmented, with no clear leaders or strategies apart from fierce opposition to Berlusconi and a big-take among the “five million” previously defined. The biggest opposition party in Italy (PD) is often joked about for being the only political party to end up losing its own primary elections. A coalition will have to include former communists, former fascists, former democratic, former radicals, and former socialists. It would be difficult for such a coalition to win a general election and even more difficult for it to run a government or push reforms.
- Whereas we would favor a government led by Giulio Tremonti (the current Minister of Finance, who has managed to keep Italy away from dangerous territory during the financial crises while keeping the deficit under control), we fear that Berlusconi is unlikely drop out of the competition. Should Giulio Tremonti enter in the race, the result would likely be further fragmentation of the political arena.
In conclusion, we fear that whereas Italy is currently experiencing the Decline of Berlusconi’s Roman Empire, the process might be painfully slow and long. And Chaos is the most likely scenario, after the fall. And this would hardly be the best scenario for equity investors. How can Italy get out of this mess? Voting Ms. Angela Merkel as the next Italian Prime Minister would probably be a step in the right direction.
E poi ci vengono a dire che all’estero ridono e si indignano per quello che combina Silvio Berlusconi. E’ vero, ma non è nulla in confronto alle cose cha all’estero dicono dell’opposizione.
Brava Citigroup un pezzo magistrale che dovrebbe diventare la prima pagina di tutti i giornali di domani.